Thursday, August 17, 2006

Leaving Lebanon - not for the first time

IDF troops are pulling out of Lebanon.
Defeated? Not really. Winners? Obviously not.

The "end" of the war is present yet it is as vague as ever.
The end of the war was supposed to be marked by a victory, or at least by a truly traumatic event that would "force" the two sides (who are the two sides? let's leave that for a later discussion) to sign a cease fire agreement.
But neither this nor that has happened. The war was indeed traumatic, but not only can no one proclaim true victory, no one seems to be defeated.

Is this the model of the (near) future wars - Medium intensity, lots of civilian casualties on both sides and no clear cut results?
Maybe Israel has learnt the lesson, both out of its own experience (and mistakes) and out of the grave mistakes of others (like the Americans in Iraq), and now believes that 'no victory' in battle is better than a lose-lose long run guerilla fighting.

The answer for this question lies within another uncertainty: Can a UN resolution be imposed by an international force?
Only time will tell. In the following days the future of the region will be set, at least for a few years. Decisive international force will prove the UN is trustworthy. Weak and reluctant one will result in a harsher and longer war, that, once again as in the past, wishes to impose victory by military means alone, in the future.

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